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Showing posts with label Daily. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daily. Show all posts

TVS MOTOR SHOWING WEAKNESS DESPITE STRONG RESULT

TVS Motor Company clocks 6% sales growth in May 2015 but chart indicating weakness 




Observation .
1. On daily chart we can see that TVS motor is  making lower lows and lower highs which is an indication of downtrend .

2. We can also see that each and every pullbacks are consuming more time , when compared to throw backs.

3.We can also see price volume divergences . 


Conclusion :- Previous swing high ie 250 is crucial level as of now .

How to trade 
 Sell near 248 with closing sl of 251 for the target of   227          (cmp 236)

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Will History Repeat ??

                            Time to add SBI to our  Portfolio 




 How to implement ??

1.We recommend Investor to accumulate SBI till 250 level
2.Time horizon 1.5 year
3. Target price 440-480.


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Time to go long

Till date we recommend to sell on rise , but at current level nifty is showing some signs of bottoming out pattern.

                   INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER 


1. Nifty has shown enough evidence of downtrend on daily time frame .

2.Nifty had corrected almost 1000 points from its   all   time high.

3.We recommended  to sell nifty based on higher point     rejection and Peak n trough analysis. SO FAR WE HAVE GAINED 400 POINTS .

4.At the current level ie. 8339, nifty has given a break out from inverse head and shoulder pattern .

5. Inverse head and shoulder has high probability of trend reversal 


HOW TO TRADE ? (CASH LEVEL)

1. BUY NIFTY CALL STRIKE PRICE 8300 JUNE SERIES  AT CURRENT LEVEL .

2. BUY NIFTY FUTURE AT OR NEAR 8170.

3. KEEP SL OF 8100 CLOSING BASIS .

4. PATTERN TARGET 8550-8610



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NIFTY UPDATE

Continuation of Previous post ( Peak & Trough analysis )

As we mentioned in oust last post that we would be waiting to go for short on retracement at or near 50% or 78% level only after evidence .

Today on 15/4/2015 we have witnessed HIGHER POINT REJECTION .




HOW TO TRADE ??

1. Its time to buy puts of 8700 or 8600 .
2. One can sell nifty futures near to the stop loss on closing basis 8850 .
3.At present level setting target for nifty futures is little skeptical .
4.We will  wait for next reversal signal to BOOK SHORT.

Reference to  previous post :- http://bwithtrend.blogspot.in/2015/03/peaks-troughs-analysis.html .

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Adani enterprise

                                       Channel break out  & Double Bottom



Adani Enterprise ( 60 min time frame )

1. on intraday chart it is given falling channel breakout 
2. It has also formed Double Bottom formation , which will get confirm about 616 

How to trade ?
1. Buy above 616 sl 603 tgt 640 -647 

Note buy in cash is advisable after break out , wait for retracement near stoploss and buy in FNO near to the stoploss , where risk reward is favorable .

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RELATIVE COMPARISON & FRACTAL THEORY

RELATIVE COMPARISON:-


                                                           BANK OF BARODA


YES BANK



RATIONALE :-
1. Not going much detail in to Elliot  wave analysis ,I have numbered the pivot points , which I have used for calculating the extension levels .
2.It is clearly visible that , Bank of Baroda has under performed when compared to Yes bank.
3.Here we can understand ,even though  both the chart has similar developments (PATTERN) but Bank of Baroda has failed to perform .
4.Hence asset quality also plays an important role while selecting the stocks, with technical.

Now I have come up with one more interesting observation , which has similar developments ,which fits in to FRACTAL THEORY
let us see the charts 
                                                             CENTURY TEXTILE


Observations
1.Similar development , when compared to yes bank and Bank of Baroda
2.Fundamentally it is performer in its sector .
3. So expecting to test at least 100% extension level i.e. 850
4. Consolidating in the range of 200-620 from OCT 2009 till date (28- March -2015 )

HOW TO TRADE
1. AT current level it is safer to buy call of rs 660 or rs 700 strike price April expiry which is trading at rs 20 and rs 5 respectively .




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Lic housing

                             Double Top 




How To Trade ??

1. Wait for pull back zone near 444-441 
2. Sell with the stoploss of 465 on closing basis
3. Minimum Target is 410-400-397


Alternate method

1. Buy put of 410 or 420 strike price according to risk appetite 

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PEAKS & TROUGHS ANALYSIS

PEAKS & TROUGHS ANALYSIS




We may see many such posts of trend line break , but now the question is how one must plan to trade ??

One may clearly see that daily chat has breached previous swing low and successfully made a lower low, now this is NOT appropriate time to go for FRESH SHORT for positional trader .

HOW to Trade ??

1. On Weekly and Monthly chart we are near to the swing low of 8282 -8250.
2 So we must wait for reversal pattern .
3. once we are able to get that on daily chart , wait for retracement
4. Near to the retracement level of 50% or 78% from swing low . Iis the right time to go for fresh short.

If any one is holding short, for them 8480 the right stop loss (positional trader )
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Should we bother about the election results??

As a trader or investor we must not bother much about the events , though we believe that it has greater  impact on the equity market .We believe that price discounts everything except the act of god , so one must continue to hold quality stocks and may not care about any events in the market . In our last report we mentioned  that we believe that the Bank , Oil and Energy sectors may get support and Pharma and Auto may correct , and we witnessed the same .
We continue to believe that the market may show its strength and it will digest the resultant impact. We don’t see a huge movement on either side , we believe that upside is capped at 6440-6500 and 5700-5600 on the lower side . And the market is in a mood to consolidate for some more month.

We see many multi bagger opportunities and we request our reader not to miss it for the sake of trading activity . We suggest our trader to reduce their trading activity and be focused on the selecting quality stocks , we will give our best to find such opportunity .
We suggest our readers not to participate on event day , so that, can build a strategy for next trading sessions.
We may not recommend trading in nifty in the coming week , but can buy near 6115 if it comes  with the stop loss of  6059 for the target of 6172-6203-6250.

Last week update (nifty sopt level)
1. We recommend to buy nifty with the sl of 6088 and we have achieved the target of 6263.
2.  We have also recommended to sell nifty (risky trader) near 6290 sl 6315 tgt 6214 , it has exactly taken resistance at 6300 and corrected till 6232.

So for this week (spot level)

Can buy near 6115 if it comes with the sl of 6059 for the tgt of 6172-6203-6250.

Stock update (spot level)

1. We have recommended to buy Rec to buy with sl of 217 tgt 236 it has made a high of 231 and sl is still intact so our call is still active.
2.We have recommended to buy cipla in the the range of 385-378 stop loss 372 target 409-415 and call is still active.
3.We have recommended to  Buy sbi with the stop loss of 1747 for the target of 1885-1955 and it has made high of 1882 and call is active .
4.We  have achieved our target on coal india
5. We have also recommended NTPC with the stop loss of 144 for the target of 160 is still active.
As our most of the calls are active we are not recommending new picks for the current week.
6. We have seen a strong pattern on the kalpataru power so the only new pick for the week is to accumulate it till 88 sl 84 tgt 105-115

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Time to select portfolio Betts

Time to select portfolio Betts

Nifty is not moving anywhere it is in the narrow range of 5700-6300. Every time it reaches 6300 it gets supply pressure and 5700-5900 has become demand zone.
Nothing but a straddle scenario , it means a majority is not aware of nifty trend and feels it may consolidate, and yes it is good as long it takes time to consolidate .
Why so,? Because as long as it consolidates we may see the powerful break out or break down vice versa.


As we have always advised our readers to go for portfolio buy instead of trading, which has given the best outcome?
We have been successful in building our wealth form our top picks like, TATA steel , DCB, PTC, YESBANK , PFC, REC etc. Even in sluggish market.
We feel the market may remain range bound till Jan 2014 and we might see break out in mid of Feb 2014.


Please note that timing the market is not an easy task, it is purely based on our understanding and logic and may differ.


So we request our readers to select best stock and go with investor mentality, the current scenario is not traders market, there are lots of multi bagger opportunity .
We recommend Canara bank as multi bagger stock accumulate in the range of 210-270 for 200% return, maybe in a span of 3 years.


Nifty update (spot level)


1.    We recommended to buy nifty for the target of 6112 , we achieved it successfully.
2.    We also recommended to sell nifty in the range of 61187-6126 for the target of 6055-6012-5980 , we achieved  6055.


So for this week ( spot level)


1.    Nifty will be in the range of 6025-6350
2.    On Monday buy nifty with the stop loss of 6088 target 6207and above 6212 we may test 6247-6263.
3.    We may face resistance at 6288.
4.    6095-6025 in no trading zone
5.    Sell only below 6025 with stop loss of 6095 target 5975-5940
6.    Risky trader may take risk to sell near 6290 with stop loss o0f 6315 closing basis for the target of 6214.


So stocks for the week


1.    Buy rec with the stop loss of 217 target 236-241

2.    Buy cipla in the range of 385-378 stop loss 372 target 409-415

3.    Buy sbi with the stop loss of 1747 for the target of 1885-1955

4.    Buy atul with the stop loss of 400 for the target of 427-440-459

5.    We have recommended coal  India to buy with the stop loss of 262 for the target of 278-285 is still active

6.    We have also recommended NTPC with the stop loss of 144 for the target of 160 is still active.
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Nfty update

NIFTY UPDATE :

1. Nifty has taken support of 5972 .
2. Nifty Has bounced 6115 but i would say bull and bears will be still in doubt or deli-ma.
3. On 20-11-2013 we had witness fast drift in nifty ie from 6204-5972 and we  believe this up move is part of pull back and nifty has close at 61.8% retracement from 6204-5972 .

so for 26-11-2013
Above 6124 one can buy for 6139-6159-6166   stop loss 6084

Nifty will be weak only below 6082 so sell below 6080 tgt 6064-6045-6036  stop loss 6124

no trading zone is 6084-6124

Stock :
Buy Baja auto at opening sl 1936 tgt 1958-1968.
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nifty Alert 19-11-2013

CMP (6199)  time 11:00 AM

We are near buyer cautious zone 6215 may act as resistance , nifty premium giving alert signal long holders trail sl to 6186 cash level intraday basis do not wait till close.

As the trend is up selling on positional basis is not recommend
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Nifty Update

Nifty Update : 18-11-2013

1.On 14-11-2013 we recommended to carry long if nifty closes at or above 6057 and  it did give the exact close.
2.Our rationale behind carrying the long position was Game changer hammer on 60 minutes time frame .
3.We may find resistance at 6202 -6211as 61.8% according to Fibonacci retracement .
4. As of now one can hold long position with 6154 as trialing sl on closing basis .
5.We are also facing channel  resistance on 60 min time frame ,but nifty may find too many support on lower level.
6.Nifty may find support at 6165-6155 below which it may test 6133-6080
7. Resistance at 6202 -6207 above which it may test 6219-6243
[ Read More ]

NIFTY UPDATE

                                                                      NIFTY UPDATE



1.Last two hour played very crucial pattern on nifty
2. There was hammering sentiment on lower time frame 
3.RSI is trying to give some  early signal of bounce , but  haven't confirmed yet
4.Risky trader can trade at this stage ,buy using strict stop loss .
5.As we have small body day , nifty is give trading opportunity , so one can buy nifty above 6010 sl 5985 tgt 6030 -6057 and close above 6057 will give us an idea to create positional long at least for 4-5 days.
6. On the other hand if it breaks 5960 sell nifty with sl of 6006 tgt 5960-5920-5880
7. If we open gap down at or near 5920-5880 then buy nifty with sl of 5875 and hold it with sl through out the day and lock  at least 30 rs as trailing stop loss .
8. on 18-11-2013 it was lower low close on 5989 so medium term trend is down.

note : the above mentioned level are cash basis.

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NIFTY UPDATE

                                                              NIFTY UPDATE


1. ON 12-11-2013 we  saw that nifty was not able to sustain 6075-6031 
2.Again we did not see any reversal pattern on 60 min time frame
3.we witnessed huge change in open interest at 5800 put and huge open interest built up at 6000 put , with increase in the price.
4.whereas there was short built up at 6100-6200 level as open interest of 6100 call and 6200 call increased with decrease in  price .
5.Even today we saw lower low closing so short term trend is negative.
6.5880-5865 is next crucial support.
7.Nifty may find resistance at 6082 and support at 5949-5886
 

[ Read More ]

Nifty update

Nifty Update : 11-11-2013


1.On 11-11-2013 we can see Inside bar on weekly chart
2.On 11-11-2013 Nifty closed on important support zone (6075 spot level)
3 Nifty is giving consistent lower low close, so nifty must cross 6187 for good bounce again 6199-6243 will act as resistance
4. Even on weekly basis nifty started showing weakness so below 6031 it may show more weakness till 5900-5880 level .
5.Short term trend is negative , and till it close above 6187 , trend may remain same .
6. I was expecting  reversal pattern on intraday chart ie on 60 min time frame .but was not observed so , tomorrow we may see panic bottom in the range of 6075-6031 then a pull back to 6187 -6243 level .

note :- On daily basis trend is in the bear grip , so sell on rise must be strategy. Buying on support level is favorable till nifty trades above 6031 with proper sl on closing basis (as we are near important support) .

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How the Sensex is calculated

Lesson :2

How the Sensex is calculated


For the premier Bombay Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons became members of what today is called The Stock Exchange, Mumbai by paying a princely amount of Re 1.

Since then, the country's capital markets have passed through both good and bad periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Till the decade of eighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market.

Sensex is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, Sensex is a basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies.

The base year of Sensex is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The index is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media.

The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but was shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float methodology. (See below: Explanation with an example)

Due to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; Sensex is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the Sensex has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the country.

The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by. Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. The Sensex captured all these events in the most judicial manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market through Sensex.

Sensex Calculation Methodology

Sensex is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology. As per this methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the Free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This market capitalization is further multiplied by the free-float factor to determine the free-float market capitalization.

The base period of Sensex is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points. This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100. The calculation of Sensex involves dividing the Free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor.

The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the Sensex. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc. During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate Sensex every 15 seconds and disseminated in real time.

Dollex-30

BSE also calculates a dollar-linked version of Sensex and historical values of this index are available since its inception.

Understanding Free-float Methodology

Free-float Methodology refers to an index construction methodology that takes into consideration only the free-float market capitalisation of a company for the purpose of index calculation and assigning weight to stocks in Index. Free-float market capitalization is defined as that proportion of total shares issued by the company that are readily available for trading in the market.

It generally excludes promoters' holding, government holding, strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will not come to the market for trading in the normal course. In other words, the market capitalization of each company in a Free-float index is reduced to the extent of its readily available shares in the market.

In India, BSE pioneered the concept of Free-float by launching BSE TECk in July 2001 and Bankex in June 2003. While BSE TECk Index is a TMT benchmark, Bankex is positioned as a benchmark for the banking sector stocks. Sensex becomes the third index in India to be based on the globally accepted Free-float Methodology.

Example (provided by rediff.com reader Munish Oberoi):

Suppose the Index consists of only 2 stocks: Stock A and Stock B.

Suppose company A has 1,000 shares in total, of which 200 are held by the promoters, so that only 800 shares are available for trading to the general public. These 800 shares are the so-called 'free-floating' shares.

Similarly, company B has 2,000 shares in total, of which 1,000 are held by the promoters and the rest 1,000 are free-floating.

Now suppose the current market price of stock A is Rs 120. Thus, the 'total' market capitalisation of company A is Rs 120,000 (1,000 x 120), but its free-float market capitalisation is Rs 96,000 (800 x 120).

Similarly, suppose the current market price of stock B is Rs 200. The total market capitalisation of company B will thus be Rs 400,000 (2,000 x 200), but its free-float market cap is only Rs 200,000 (1,000 x 200).

So as of today the market capitalisation of the index (i.e. stocks A and B) is Rs 520,000 (Rs 120,000 + Rs 400,000); while the free-float market capitalisation of the index is Rs 296,000. (Rs 96,000 + Rs 200,000).

The year 1978-79 is considered the base year of the index with a value set to 100. What this means is that suppose at that time the market capitalisation of the stocks that comprised the index then was, say, 60,000 (remember at that time there may have been some other stocks in the index, not A and B, but that does not matter), then we assume that an index market cap of 60,000 is equal to an index-value of 100.

Thus the value of the index today is = 296,000 x 100/60,000 = 493.33

This is how the Sensex is calculated.

The factor 100/60000 is called index divisor.


(source : http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/feb/21bspec.htm)
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Trading opportunity in SBIN

                                      SBI

1. On 8-11-2013 we can see small real body on sbi chart
2. This provides us an trading opportunity
3.On 11-11-2013 , risky trader can buy at  or above 1763 with the stop loss of  1729 and safe trader enter above 1770 with the sl of 1745 for the target of 1798-1823.
4 Below 1723 sell with the sl of 1750 tgt 1697.


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NIFTY UPDATE 8-11-2013

NIFTY UPDATE


1. I have posted two snap of nifty  if we observe clearly we can see distribution formation happening at 6330 zone which may take shape of head and shoulder , currently it is broadening top pattern .
2. We can also see nifty has broken down  raising channel .
3. ADX and RSI has given an early indication of the distribution pattern .
4.So short tern trend is down , but medium term and long term is still intact .
5.Nifty may find support at 6104-6075 and resistance at 6199-6222
6. Today is 4 th day in row after  gap down action on 5-11-2013 we are closing on negative basis with lower low close .
7. nifty must close above 6195 on 11-11-2013 to change short term bias .
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NIFTY UPDATE 7-11-2013

                                                                     NIFTY UPDATE





1.On 7-11-2013 we can see that nifty made an attempt to cross 6317 level , but failed to do so.
2.This failure is an indication of short term trend reversal .
3.we can also see nifty has broken rising trend line with volumes .
4. now important resistance level is  6243-6233 and immediate support is 6175 , below that it may test 6127.

note :- short term trend may remain down if nifty closes below 6185 on 8-11-2013



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